A weak global economy, China, the prospect of further US interest rate rises in 2016, the UK’s “Brexit” vote and the outcome of the US presidential election are all combining to divide dealmakers’ opinions on the biggest threats to merger and acquisition (M&A) activity over the next six months. This is according to the results of a survey of over 1,600 global dealmakers involved in M&A, released by Intralinks, the leading global provider of M&A deal management and secure content collaboration solutions.
The survey was done between 4 to 11 October, 2016 covering the Asia Pacific, Europe, the Middle East and Africa, North America and Latin America regions.
Respondents from Asia Pacific (APAC) predict that the economic and market events in China will have the most impact on M&A activity in the region over the next six months. In North America (NA), dealmakers predict the US presidential election will have the most impact over the same period, despite the other significant economic factors in play such as further interest rate rises. In Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA), respondents believe Brexit will have the most impact in the next six months and in Latin America (LATAM) monetary policy tops dealmakers’ concerns.
“There’s clearly an overwhelming consensus among dealmakers that Hillary Clinton will be the next US president and that Donald Trump would be bad for global M&A,” said Philip Whitchelo, VP Strategy & Product Marketing at Intralinks. “However, factors other than US politics are also dominating dealmakers’ attentions, with the UK’s Brexit vote, monetary policy changes and the impact of China on the global economy being top of mind for many,” he added.
APAC results from the survey include:
- 51% of respondents expect to participate in more deals in the next 6 months than the previous 6 months
- 86% of respondents think Hillary Clinton will win the US Presidential Election
- 59% of respondents believe the impact of a Trump presidency on the M&A market in their region would be negative
- 66% of respondents believe a Clinton presidency would have no impact on the M&A market in their region [28% positive, 6% negative]
- Industry with the most M&A activity will be Industrials
At a global level, while 56 per cent of respondents believe that a Trump presidency would have a negative impact on M&A activity, only 15 per cent believe that he will actually win. Conversely, 57 percent of respondents globally believe a Clinton presidency would have no impact on M&A activity, with 26 per cent of dealmakers stating a Clinton presidency would have a positive impact on M&A activity.